Chase Silseth and MLB Game Planning
Amidst the cadre of talented players the Angels big league roster possesses is a new face, Chase Silseth. At a mere 22 years of age and drafted just last year, Silseth’s ascent through the minor leagues has been quick. He made seven career starts in AA ball and now he finds himself in the Angels clubhouse. Silseth has a four pitch repertoire featuring a fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. Having four legit pitches has afforded Silseth the opportunity to start, but some around baseball believe he may be better suited for a bullpen role seeing he only stands six feet tall which may denote a lack of durability down the line. On the 20 to 80 scale Silseth’s stuff seems to be above average with MLB.com giving him the following grades:
Fastball: 55
Curveball: 45
Changeup: 50
Slider: 50
After making two starts, we can see those scouting grades come to fruition through Statcast data. Silseth’s fastball has been in the 81st percentile of velocity so far in addition to 90% active spin, meaning he does a good job of maximizing his spin and getting on top of the ball mechanically-speaking.
Having thrown 174 pitches through two starts Silseth he has gone away from throwing the curveball, tossing only four. However, that doesn’t mean that Silseth’s curveball isn’t a plus pitch in terms of movement. Clocking in at about 60 inches of average vertical movement, if qualified Sisleth would rank 18th in baseball in average vertical curveball break.
Although MLB.com says he throws a straight changeup, Statcast disagrees and classifies it as a splitter. This distinction is quite meaningful and rare considering only five qualified pitchers league-wide feature the pitch and all are above average starters. The list includes the likes of Kevin Gausman, Tyler Mahle, Nathan Eovaldi, Frankie Montas, and Yu Darvish. Because of the lack of data on splitters, it becomes hard to contextualize his movement profile, but it fits most closely to Nathan Eovaldi. If you widen the search to pitchers who are technically not qualified, the shape of his pitch aligns well with Alex Cobb’s which has yielded a ridiculous 34.6% whiff rate and .170 xWOBA. Silseth’s results haven’t been much different as his splitter has resulted in a 30.3% whiff rate and a .197 xWOBA.
Silseth’s real weapon is his slider. Through his first two starts, the slider has been his main put away pitch and the pitch quality numbers back it up. If he were to be a qualified pitcher, his vertical movement would rank 5th and his horizontal movement would rank 15th. This combination of above average vertical and horizontal movement has led to a 42.9% whiff rate through two starts.
The initial Statcast numbers for Silseth are great, but the real question is durability. The priority for Silseth’s development now isn’t to create a better arsenal, but to become durable enough to pitch 150+ innings for a ball club who has lacked a dependable rotation in recent years. A rotation featuring Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, Michael Lorenzen, Noah Syndergaard, and Chase Silseth is one with a lot of upside and versatility come October. A move to the bullpen for just the postseason could make a lot of sense for Silseth as he has electric stuff that could play up in shorter stints. The long-term goal, however, remains the same.
What was interesting about Silseth’s first two starts of the 2022 season were that they give baseball fans a rare opportunity to dissect advanced scouting as they both came against the Oakland Athletics. His first start was nothing short of spectacular, throwing 6 1/3 innings giving up only a hit and two walks with four strikeouts. The next outing was a bit shakier as he only made it through 4 1/3 giving up three earned on six hits and two walks. The lone bright spot of that second start was an uptick in strikeouts over a similar amount of batters faced. So what accounted for the discrepancy in outcome between the two starts? Let’s take a look at some individual at bats as well as pitch usage data for both games.
Chase Silseth’s pitch usage by start and handedness
Between the two starts, the Angels coaches and front office switched their game planning to an extent. Versus left handed hitters Silseth went heavier on his fastball than his splitter after his first outing. In that first outing, Silseth used his four seamer when he needed a strike. Of the thirteen he threw to lefties, twelve of them came in counts that Silseth was even with the hitter or behind. How did that change in game two? Well, of the twenty-one he threw in that start, sixteen of them were in those same instances. One Athletics batter in particular seemed to take advantage of this tendency. In game one on May 13th, Seth Brown was slotted in the fifth spot of the order and registered a strikeout and groundout in two plate appearances against Silseth. In both at bats against Silseth on 5/13, Brown saw a four seamer in a count that was even or he was behind, although nothing came of it. In game two, after being moved up to the clean up spot, Brown clearly took note of Silseth’s tendencies. In his first at bat of the game Silseth opened with a curveball that was thrown for a ball. Now down in the count, Silseth threw a four seamer that Brown whiffed at and then came back with another one which Brown hit for a line drive, good for a .810 xBA. Clearly, Brown was expecting fastball here as it corresponded with Silseth’s tendencies. Brown’s third at bat was much of the same. Silseth went up 0-2 after throwing a slider that Brown took for a ball and then he threw a four seamer which Brown fouled off. The count then went to 2-2 after Silseth threw two sloppy splitters which deviated about two inches of horizontal movement from Silseth’s season averages. With Silseth having lost command of his splitter, Brown, in an even count, could only have expected one pitch:
Even though Silseth struggled against lefties in his second outing, he was fantastic against right handed hitters. Of the twelve righties he faced, two got on base - one by a base hit, the other by a hit by pitch on the last hitter he faced of the game. Much of his success in game two against righties was due to increased slider usage. In game two, Silseth logged six whiffs, three strikeouts, one hit, and only two balls on his slider to righties. The only two balls Silseth threw came against the last batter he faced, Ramon Laureano.
Overall, the story of the Athletics success against Silseth in game two opposed to game one can be attributed to their improved game planning. It isn’t easy to understand the pitch mix a minor leaguer will throw at you in his first big league start. However, after one start against him just a week earlier, you can have somewhat of an idea of how he will attack you. Going forward, the recipe for Chase Silseth’s success lies in an increased usage of sliders to righties and less fastballs to get back into counts against lefties. The fastball usage may indicate a lack of off speed command for Silseth which can be fixable as he has only been in pro baseball for a short stint. He remains a name to watch on a budding Angels team who could use his stuff as the season goes on.
