New Year, New Drew Rasmussen

Last May, with Wander Franco and a backlog of prospects waiting in the wings, the Rays decided to trade shortstop Willy Adames in return for two relatively unknown pitchers from the Brewers in J.P. Feyereisen and a 6th round pick from 2018, Drew Rasmussen.

Rasmussen was initially used as a reliever, but by August was part of the Rays’ rotation. In 59 innings pitched for the Rays last year, Rasmussen posted a 2.44 ERA accompanied by a 82nd percentile barrel rate. On top of that, Rasmussen’s underlying pitch data was solid - he posted 89th percentile fastball spin and 95th percentile fastball velocity. This led to Rasmussen leaning heavily on the pitch, throwing it 62 percent of the time to righties and 70% to lefties. Rasmussen is a pitcher at a weird crossroad of allowing hard contact, but still not giving up a lot of runs. Last year he was in the 1st percentile in hard hit rate.

Here’s the leaderboard of worst hard hit rates in MLB with a minimum of 100 plate appearances. Rasmussen has by far the lowest barrel rate amongst this group. On top of that, this group of pitchers is littered with ineffective players who allow a lot of power, as their xISO suggests.

So what exactly was Rasmussen’s problem last year? Although his four seam fastball is a plus pitch in terms of spin and velocity, it didn’t necessarily yield results that match the pitch’s quality. His four seamer resulted in a .265 xBA, a .391 xSLG, and a .318 xWOBA. These stats are in line with what we see on the surface - not a lot of extra base hits allowed, but a lot of singles. In fact, Rasmussen had a measly 1.6% home run rate last year. The slider was quality as well, yielding a .278 xSLG and a .232 xWOBA. On a pitch movement level, the slider, like his fastball, was a plus pitch with 39.5 inches of vertical movement, good for 5.2 vs average of similar pitchers. Speaking of similar pitchers, Rasmussen shared eerily similar stuff to Milwaukee Brewer Brandon Woodruff last year. Woodruff’s fastball averaged 96.5 mph with 12.7in of vertical movement and 6.4in of horizontal movement. Rasmussen averaged 97.1mph and 11.6in of vertical movement and 4.4in of horizontal movement. . Rasmussen and Woodruff throw sliders averaging nearly the same speed, vertical movement, and horizontal movement. Ask any baseball fan and they probably would tell you Woodruff is a better pitcher than Rasmussen. With such similar stuff, why does Brandon Woodruff get elite results while Rasmussen gets just above average results with similar pitch profiles? I would posit that it has to do with overall repertoire. Woodruff is a five pitch pitcher who can throw different looks at batters by tunneling his pitches. Rasmussen can be one dimensional and easier to read while relying on just two pitches. It seems that the Rays noticed this and had a plan going into 2022.

The plan for Rasmussen wasn’t to stop throwing his four seam and slider, but to add a new pitch while making the other two existing pitches better. Rasmussen’s four seam fastball velocity has decreased 1.7mph this year, but that doesn’t necessarily indicate a drop in pitch quality. His drop in velocity has came with an increase of 2 inches of vertical movement (or ride). This helps the ball get above the barrel, lowering hard contact, something that Rasmussen struggled with last year. The slider has also gotten much better this year. Over the offseason, Rasmussen added 4 inches of vertical movement and a jaw dropping 9 inches of horizontal movement. Not only did he add movement to his pitches, Rasmussen added a new pitch entirely - a cutter. The way Rays pitching coach Kyle Snyder explains it is that his slider is now more of a sweeper, where the new cutter is a tighter version of his old slider. This allows Rasmussen to throw different looks at hitters.

Rasmussen’s four seam fastballs in 2022 (catcher’s view)

Rasmussen’s sliders in 2022 (catcher’s view)

Rasmussen’s cutters in 2022 (catcher’s view)

These charts illustrate the importance of the cutter to Rasmussen’s success this year. By having a four seamer that is usually up in the zone and a slider that predominantly sits down and away, Rasmussen can become predictable at times. The cutter changes that. The pitch can work in the zone as it cuts down on batters expecting high fastball. If a batter sits slider, the cutter can mess with his timing while still working down and away - a location that limits hard contact.

With this new pitch mix, Rasmussen has shown early season success. The Statcast numbers don’t jump off the page this year, but he simply gets outs which is the mantra of the Rays. No matter how he does it, you can’t deny that Rasmussen’s out-getting ability will prove valuable down the stretch for the Rays. He has showed flashes of strikeout upside, but he hasn’t fully come around yet. Hopefully for the Rays, as the season wears on and the effects of a shortened spring training diminish, they will be able to reap the dividends of Rasmussen’s new arsenal.